Welcome back to the Data Debrief! Bitcoin barely moved, holding near $103K on Monday after Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its last triple-A rating amid mounting debt. Meanwhile, Coinbase entered the S&P 500, but the euphoria was short-lived. The exchange revealed that client information was stolen as hackers sought to blackmail the firm, with costs related to the incident expected to reach $400 million.
This Week's Topics
BTC 1% depth hits ATH
Bitcoin liquidity on U.S.-based exchanges reached a new all-time high of $290 million in early May, reflecting a steady rise in 1% market depth, both in BTC terms and USD, since the start of the year.
ETH IV inverts
Ethereum's 60% price surge triggered an implied volatility term structure inversion due to traders rushing to adjust positions, rather than from market risk concerns.
Why are BTC spreads higher on US platforms?
Bitcoin's tighter bid-ask spreads on offshore exchanges primarily reflect their competitive fee structures and market maker incentives, rather than true liquidity advantages over U.S. venues.
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Summer has traditionally been a quieter period for both crypto and equity markets, with the old adage “sell in May and go away” often proving true. Historical data backs this up.
Since 2020, Q3 has consistently recorded the lowest trading volumes for Bitcoin, except in 2022, when cascading sell-offs triggered by the collapse of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital led to an unusual spike in summer activity.
So, are we in for another sleepy summer?
Probably not. Several major catalysts are converging. The Fed's next meeting precedes President Trump's July 9 tariff deadline, while crucial U.S. crypto legislation is expected before Congress's August recess.
Options markets are already pricing in higher volatility. June 27 expiry has seen significant volume with bullish positioning at $110K and $120K strikes, suggesting traders anticipate new BTC highs despite macro headwinds.
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Bybit’s liquidity rebounded within 30 days following one of the most severe hacks in crypto history. This report analyzes how key liquidity metrics evolved across Bitcoin and altcoins, highlighting improvements in market depth, spread stability, and trading volumes amid a broader risk-off environment.
Kaiko's research newsletter is written by the Kaiko research team: Dessislava Aubert, Adam Morgan McCarthy, and Anastasia Melachrinos. This content is the property of Kaiko, its affiliates and licensors. Any use, reproduction or distribution is permitted only if ownership and source are expressly attributed to Kaiko. This content is for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. For any questions, please email research@kaiko.com.
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